Strategic Plan for Preparedness, Vulnerability Reduction, and Resilience against Flood Risk; A Case Study of Kermanshah Province

Introduction: Floods are among the most hazardous natural disasters, directly threatening the safety and livelihoods of residents in settlements. In addition to causing significant social, economic, and environmental damages, floods pose a serious obstacle to sustainable development. Climate change and increasing weather variability have heightened the frequency and intensity of floods worldwide. Over the past five decades, the number of reported flood events has steadily risen, resulting in substantial economic losses. On average, one-third of natural disaster damages are flood-related, and about 95 percent of flood-related fatalities occur in developing countries.
The Purpose of the Research: The primary objective of this research is to develop a strategic plan to reduce flood risk in Kermanshah Province. This plan focuses on reducing vulnerability and enhancing the resilience of settlements by proposing effective measures to mitigate flood impacts. Kermanshah Province, due to its unique geographical and climatic characteristics, is highly prone to recurrent floods. Recent floods have caused extensive damage to various sectors, including agriculture and infrastructure.
Methodology: This research employs a descriptive-analytical approach, utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework and the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis method. In the first step, flood risk and vulnerability zoning maps were created. Subsequently, by overlaying these maps, a crisis model was developed, and a flood risk reduction plan was formulated. Key factors influencing flood occurrence, such as vegetation cover, soil type, land use, slope, distance from rivers, rainfall, and topography, were identified and weighted.
Findings and Discussion: The findings of this study provide insights into the geographical, climatic, and vulnerability conditions of the region. On average, the slope of the land in the province is 21 percent, with steeper slopes primarily located in the northwest. Slope significantly affects the intensity and speed of floods; lower slopes increase the likelihood of water accumulation and flood risk. Central and elevated areas of the province experience higher rainfall, while the western regions receive minimal precipitation. Climate analyses indicate a rise in intense rainfall in recent years, directly increasing the probability of floods. The geological structure of Kermanshah Province is predominantly composed of sedimentary basins of the Zagros, and due to drought, plains and lowlands have become flood-prone areas. This situation has been exacerbated in recent years by reduced vegetation cover and increased human activities. Due to population and infrastructure concentration, the eastern half of the province is more vulnerable than the western half. Crisis maps highlight vulnerable areas, particularly around Kermanshah City, where high population density increases flood susceptibility.
To examine flood scenarios, four scenarios have been considered: first, river overflows that lead to damage to villages and infrastructure due to heavy rainfall; second, continuous rainfall that can lead to the inundation of plains and the encirclement of five villages; third, the effects of continuous rainfall in the folded areas and the Kermanshah plain; and fourth, combined scenarios that include a combined analysis of the first and second scenarios. The SWOT analysis identified 8 strengths, 11 weaknesses, 5 opportunities, and 7 threats. Strengths include human resources and infrastructure, while weaknesses involve a lack of equipment and public awareness. Opportunities for improving flood risk management were noted, alongside threats like climate change and population growth.
Conclusion: This research developed a strategic plan for flood risk reduction in Kermanshah Province using AHP-based GIS analysis and SWOT. The results indicate that the central and western regions face the highest flood risks, while the northwestern to southern areas are less vulnerable. Key factors contributing to flood risk include topography, rainfall intensity, and road density. Land use and proximity to rivers were also identified as critical factors. Strategic planning to mitigate flood impacts is essential, with public participation playing a crucial role. The study emphasizes collaboration among government agencies, researchers, and local communities for effective flood crisis management.
To reduce flood risk and vulnerability, four main strategies were proposed: growth, revision, confrontation, and defense. The defensive strategy, selected as the primary approach, includes reinforcing infrastructure, establishing emergency and medical centers, and improving energy transmission lines. Policies for building repairs, continuous infrastructure monitoring, and public education on flood preparedness were also recommended. These strategies aim to reduce damages and enhance the province's resilience to natural hazards.